_Date: 13 August 2026_
_Status: Active — numbers justification companion to the v6 script. Full line-item verification for all 5 active network sites: Okinawa, Azores, Norway, Kefalonia, South Africa._

# Atlantis Pads — Numbers Justification

Companion document to `atlantis-pads-deck-v6-script.md`. Every dollar figure and percentage used in the v6 script's Act 3/4 (Okinawa/Azores deep dive) and Act 5 (wider network) traces back to a line item here, with its source tagged. Two categories of number appear throughout this project:

- **[INTERNAL MODEL]** — an assumption in the Atlantis Pads financial model (revenue estimate, cost estimate). Not an external citation. Defensible as a reasoned estimate, not as a verified fact.
- **[SOURCED]** — backed by an external citation, institutional fact, or documented price/market reference from the site-profile.md research.

---

## ⚠️ Flagged Discrepancy — Requires Your Decision

The current v5 deck HTML (`presentation/atlantis-pads-deck.html`) displays margin figures on the Okinawa and Azores financial slides that **do not match** the line items on those same slides:

| Site | Deck displays | Recomputed from deck's own line items | Matches v6 script? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Okinawa, conservative margin | 24% | **-28%** (a loss: $207,600 rev vs $264,843 opex) | Yes — v6 script already uses -28% |
| Okinawa, realistic margin | 49% | **+25%** ($350,800 rev vs $264,843 opex) | Yes — v6 script already uses +25% |
| Azores, conservative margin | 20% | **+15%** ($304,128 rev vs $257,410 opex) | Yes — v6 script already uses +15% |
| Azores, realistic margin | 51% | +51% (matches) | Yes |

**What this means:** the v6 script text is already correct — it inherited the right numbers from the Aug 8 session where this was first recalculated. The v5 deck's on-slide display was never updated to match and is currently showing wrong numbers to anyone looking at that HTML file. This doesn't block v6 script work, but the old deck HTML should either be corrected or retired once v6 replaces it — flagging so it doesn't get referenced or shared in its current state.

---

## Okinawa — Full Line-Item Verification

**⚠️ Superseded by the Ryokan Gyoho cost rebuild, decided Aug 23, 2026.** The figures below ($876,000 startup / $264,843 opex / -28%/+25% margins) were the original baseline, before the project confirmed that housing tied to the OIST research residencies revenue line must be modeled as licensed Ryokan Gyoho guest accommodation, not employee housing (see `sites/site-profile-japan.md` risk table and `presentation/atlantis-pads-okinawa-ryokan-gyoho-cost-rebuild.md` for the full research and decision trail). **The governing figures as of Aug 23, 2026 are: startup $891,250, opex $265,343, conservative margin -28% (unchanged at rounding), realistic margin +24% (was +25%).** The line-item tables below are retained for audit-trail purposes and to show the original baseline the rebuild worked from; the delta lines are called out explicitly where they apply.

### Startup Cost Breakdown — $891,250 total (was $876,000; delta below)

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Land / coastal lease (3ha, Onna Village) | $185,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Container homes x3 (Okinawa build standard), BSA structural base | $312,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Container homes x3, Ryokan Gyoho fire/safety/egress delta** | **+$13,000** | [INTERNAL MODEL], range $6,000-$20,000, midpoint used — see `atlantis-pads-okinawa-ryokan-gyoho-cost-rebuild.md` §1b |
| Aquaculture infrastructure — mozuku plots, lines | $88,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Dive operation — two vessels, equipment | $64,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Research station fit-out | $42,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Permits, MAFF registration, SEZ filing | $18,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Ryokan Gyoho licensing (application fee + agent filing)** | **+$2,000** | [SOURCED] ¥22,000 stamp fee (pref.okinawa.jp) + [SOURCED] ¥200K-330K agent fee range, midpoint — see rebuild doc §1f |
| Working capital reserve (6 months opex) | $167,250 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — see rebuild doc §2a note on the pre-existing reserve-derivation quirk |
| **Total** | **$891,250** | Sum verified: 185+312+13+88+64+42+18+2+167.25 = 891.25 ✓ |

### Annual Operating Costs — $265,343 total (was $264,843; delta below)

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Staff — 2 FT guides, 1 aquaculture tech, 1 manager | $112,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Vessel operations, fuel, maintenance | $38,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Aquaculture inputs — seed stock, nutrients, harvest | $28,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Accommodation operations, utilities | $34,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Marketing, booking platform, insurance | $26,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Research residency hosting costs | $14,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Admin, compliance, contingency (absorbs guest-registry nationality/passport logging) | $12,843 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Periodic fire equipment inspection/maintenance contract** | **+$500** | [INTERNAL MODEL] — see rebuild doc §1g |
| **Total** | **$265,343** | Sum verified: 112+38+28+34+26+14+12.843+0.5 = 265.343 ✓ |

**Not added, with reasoning (sourced thresholds not reached at 3-unit scale):** mandatory sprinkler system (700m²+ trigger, this project is 150-210m² combined), fire safety manager (30+ occupancy trigger), annual license renewal fee (Okinawa uses a change-notification obligation instead). See rebuild doc §2b for full detail.

### Revenue Without Grants, Year 2-3

| Revenue Stream | Active Months | Conservative | Realistic | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mozuku + fucoidan + aquaculture | 12 | $50,000 | $90,000 | [SOURCED] — mozuku is MAFF-registered endemic strain with a documented price floor that "never dropped below ¥120/kg when the market collapsed" per `network-overview.md`; Onna Village Fisheries Cooperative produces ~99% of Japan's national mozuku supply per the same doc. Revenue *level* here is an internal model estimate, but the price-floor and market-share claims underneath it are sourced. |
| Reef diving, turtle watch, manta, kayak | 8-9 | $82,600 | $136,400 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — demand context sourced: Okinawa draws 10M+ annual visitors, Churaumi Aquarium (3-5km away) draws 3M visitors/year per `network-overview.md`. |
| Sport fishing and pelagic charters | 8 | $28,800 | $48,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| OIST research residencies (licensed guest lodging — see Ryokan Gyoho decision above) | 10 | $12,000 | $20,000 | [SOURCED] context — OIST Marine Science Station is physically sited in Onna Village and actively seeking field partners (Sea neXus hub) per `network-overview.md`. Per-residency pricing is an internal model estimate. Revenue kept unchanged in the rebuild; only the cost side moved. |
| Culinary and education programs | 9 | $18,000 | $30,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| ROV demos and underwater photography | 10 | $16,200 | $26,400 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | | **$207,600** | **$350,800** | Sums verified against deck tfoot ✓ |

### Margin — Corrected, then Rebuilt

- **Original (pre-Ryokan Gyoho): Conservative -27.6% (rounds to -28%), Realistic +24.5% (rounds to +25%).**
- **Governing (post-Ryokan Gyoho, Aug 23 2026): Conservative ($207,600 - $265,343) / $207,600 = -27.81%, rounds to -28% (no visible change). Realistic ($350,800 - $265,343) / $350,800 = +24.37%, rounds to +24% (down one point).**

These are now the figures that should be used in the v6 script and Act 6 data appendix going forward: **Okinawa -28%/+24%**, not -28%/+25%.

### Grant Upside (not in base case)

| Grant | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| MAFF Fisheries Revitalization Subsidy | $33K-$200K | [SOURCED] — Japan Fisheries Agency UMIGYO program, a funded national initiative for tourism-aquaculture fusion, per `network-overview.md` |
| Okinawa SEZ Hiring Subsidy | $8K per eligible hire under 35 | [SOURCED] — Okinawa Special Economic Zone tax structure documented in `network-overview.md` |

| Japan Tourism Agency Sustainable Destination | $20K-$67K | [INTERNAL MODEL] — program exists, specific amount is an estimate |

---

### Coworking + Shuttle Module (added August 2026)

Added scope, not part of the base-case totals above — modeled separately here, folded into Okinawa's totals only if/when Steven confirms it for the deck. Concept: a $9/week student coworking membership plus a shuttle service, with the shuttle opened to general pad visitors/tourists/researchers rather than restricted to student members, since Onna Village's 2.94M annual tourist overnights (per `network-overview.md`) give the shuttle a demand base far larger than the student-membership base alone. Tested against Azores too (see that site's Grant Upside section) — Azores version rejected, low visitor volume there doesn't support it (net loss $22.4K-$32.9K/yr at both cases). Okinawa's tourism volume is the deciding factor for keeping this module here and not there.

**Added Startup Capital — $85,000**

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Coworking build-out (~20 desks, furniture, fiber + Starlink backup, AC) | $50,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Shuttle van (12-15 seat, e.g. Hiace-class) | $35,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | **$85,000** | Sum verified: 50+35 = 85 ✓ |

**Added Annual Operating Costs — $53,000**

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Driver (part-time/shared role) | ~$22,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Fuel, maintenance, insurance (van) | ~$14,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Coworking utilities, internet, AC | ~$9,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Part-time community manager | ~$8,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | **$53,000** | Sum verified: 22+14+9+8 = 53 ✓ |

**Added Revenue, Annual**

| Revenue Stream | Conservative | Realistic | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| $9/week student coworking tier (15 desks reserved) | $2,400 | $4,700 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — 65% realistic fill assumption against 15 desks at $9/week x 52 weeks |
| Shuttle as general paid transfer (not member-restricted) | $15,000 | $54,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — 2 runs/day, 6-seat avg fill, $15/one-way, 300 operating days/year. Demand context sourced: Onna Village 2.94M tourist overnights/year per `network-overview.md`. |
| **Total** | **$17,400** | **$58,700** | Sum verified: 2,400+15,000=17,400 ✓ / 4,700+54,000=58,700 ✓ |

**Net Effect on Okinawa (module only, standalone)**

| Case | Revenue | Opex | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $17,400 | $53,000 | **-$35,600** |
| Realistic | $58,700 | $53,000 | **+$5,700** |

**Combined Okinawa Margin (base case + module, realistic)**

- Revenue: $350,800 + $58,700 = $409,500
- Opex: $264,843 + $53,000 = $317,843
- Startup capital: $876,000 + $85,000 = $961,000
- Margin: ($409,500 - $317,843) / $409,500 = **+22.4%** (down slightly from +25% base case — the module is near-breakeven at realistic capacity, not accretive, but it isn't a drag either)

**Combined Okinawa Margin (base case + module, conservative)**

- Revenue: $207,600 + $17,400 = $225,000
- Opex: $264,843 + $53,000 = $317,843
- Margin: ($225,000 - $317,843) / $225,000 = **-41.3%** (down from -28% base case — the module widens the floor-case loss since it doesn't cover its own opex at the stress-test level)

**Strategic framing, not just financial:** Steven's stated rationale for keeping this module (Aug 2026) is that it brings more people to the site and gets them involved, not that it needs to be its own profit center. The realistic-case near-breakeven result supports treating it as viable without leaning on that framing to justify it — worth flagging in deck copy that this module's real return is community/pipeline-building (more visitors, more OVFC/OIST engagement, deck's own "needs someone to grow alongside it" narrative), with the financial near-breakeven at realistic capacity as a secondary, supporting fact rather than the primary case.

---

## Azores — Full Line-Item Verification

**⚠️ Governing unit count updated 24 Aug 2026 to 6 units (was 3).** Decision driven by two sourced findings: (1) `atlantis-pads-azores-adventure-tourism-research.md` and `atlantis-pads-azores-container-scaling-3-6-9.md`'s own overnight-market research confirmed Pico/Faial's overnight tourism base (~235,000-236,000 stays/year per island, per SREA) comfortably supports scaling past 3 units, a 6-unit lodge needs well under 1% of that existing market to fill capacity; (2) the 3/6/9 scaling brief's own base-case financial rebuild showed 6 units is financially survivable, but only barely (conservative case effectively breaks even, not a real margin). **The governing figures below therefore use the brief's speculative research-residency revenue upside variant, not the bare base case** — see the explicit callout in the Margin section below for exactly what that assumption is and why it is flagged, not silently folded in. The original 3-unit baseline is retained further below for audit trail.

### Startup Cost Breakdown — $1,514,500 total (mid-case, 6 units)

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Land / coastal plot (Faial or Pico, 2ha) | $148,000 | [SOURCED] context — €35-60/m² coastal rural land on Pico, 213+ active listings mid-2026, per `network-overview.md` |
| Container homes x6 (seismic + Atlantic wind rated), sourced €88K-187K/unit range, mid-case | $891,000 | [SOURCED range] $570,000 low / $891,000 mid / $1,212,000 high — per `atlantis-pads-azores-container-scaling-3-6-9.md` §1a. Does NOT multiply the old 3-unit $312,000 placeholder; uses the sourced per-unit range directly, per that brief's own explicit instruction. |
| IMTA aquaculture infrastructure — lines, cages, nursery | $124,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL], unchanged, held flat per the 3/6/9 brief's convention |
| Research vessel and ROV operational kit | $112,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL], unchanged |
| Research station and OKEANOS interface fit-out | $56,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL], unchanged |
| Permits, DRA (regional authority), EU regulatory filings | $28,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL], unchanged |
| AL/Moradia registration, per-unit vistoria fee, safety-equipment bundle (6 Moradia registrations) | $3,500 | [SOURCED] per `atlantis-pads-azores-al-license-cost-rebuild.md` §2a, scales linearly, $583.33/unit x 6 |
| Working capital reserve (6 months opex) | $152,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — mechanically derived from the 6-unit opex total below |
| **Total (mid-case)** | **$1,514,500** | Sum verified: 148+891+124+112+56+28+3.5+152 = 1,514.5 ✓. Low-case (container homes at $570K): $1,193,500. High-case (container homes at $1,212K): $1,835,500. |

### Annual Operating Costs — $304,000 total (6 units)

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Staff — 2 FT researchers, 1 aquaculture tech, 1 guide | $98,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL], unchanged — headcount scales with research/tour volume, not bed count, per the 3/6/9 brief's convention |
| Vessel operations, fuel, ROV maintenance | $52,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL], unchanged |
| Aquaculture inputs — seed, nutrients, harvest logistics | $32,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL], unchanged |
| Accommodation operations, utilities (island premium), scaled to 6 units | $72,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — scaled linearly from the 3-unit $36,000 baseline, per `atlantis-pads-azores-container-scaling-3-6-9.md` §1c |
| OKEANOS partnership costs, co-publication fees | $14,000 | [SOURCED] context — OKEANOS marine research institute headquartered in Horta, works with BBC/National Geographic/NOAA, per `network-overview.md` |
| Marketing, booking, carbon credit verification | $18,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL], unchanged |
| Admin, EU grant compliance, contingency | $7,410 | [INTERNAL MODEL], unchanged |
| AL insurance/fire-equipment, 6 units | $1,590 | [SOURCED] per the AL license rebuild, scales linearly |
| Incremental part-time facilities/turnover staffing, +1 role for 6 units | $9,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] wage estimate, per `atlantis-pads-azores-container-scaling-3-6-9.md` §1c |
| **Total** | **$304,000** | Sum verified: 98+52+32+72+14+18+7.41+1.59+9 = 304.0 ✓ |

### Revenue, Year 2-3 — Base Case (unchanged, revenue held flat regardless of unit count)

| Revenue Stream | Active Months | Conservative | Realistic | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whale watching and cetacean tours | 10 | $96,000 | $172,800 | [SOURCED] context — 28 cetacean species documented in Azorean waters per `network-overview.md`; largest MPA network in North Atlantic (287,000 km², see v6 script footnotes 7-8) supports the tourism claim. Per-tour pricing is internal model. |
| IMTA harvest — mussels, oysters, sea bass | 12 | $68,000 | $120,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Research residencies and ROV leasing | 10 | $44,000 | $72,000 | [SOURCED] context — active OKEANOS institutional partnership |
| Diving — volcanic geology and seamounts | 7 | $54,000 | $90,000 | [SOURCED] context — three tectonic plates, active hydrothermal vents 170km out, documented in `network-overview.md` |
| Seaweed bioproducts and microalgae | 12 | $24,128 | $42,076 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Practitioner programs and immersives | 8 | $18,000 | $32,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total, base case** | | **$304,128** | **$528,876** | Sums verified against deck tfoot ✓, unchanged from the 3-unit baseline |

### ⚠️ Governing Revenue Assumption: Speculative Research-Residency Upside (used below, NOT the base case)

**This is a real, named, uncontracted assumption, not a decided fact. Read this before using the margin figures below.**

The 3-unit baseline's "Research residencies and ROV leasing" line ($44,000 conservative / $72,000 realistic) is hypothesized in `atlantis-pads-azores-container-scaling-3-6-9.md` §1e to plausibly scale with additional dedicated researcher-housing capacity, since OKEANOS is a real, active, named institutional partner already running field seasons that could plausibly fill more beds. **At 6 units, the brief's sourced figure adds the full baseline residency amount as incremental upside on top of the base-case total** ($304,128 + $44,000 conservative, $528,876 + $72,000 realistic), not a doubling of the residency line in isolation. This is **not stated or committed anywhere in the source documents as an actual contracted volume** — nothing from OKEANOS confirms they will in fact fill 6 units' worth of researcher housing at this price. **Track this as a named assumption to confirm with OKEANOS before treating it as real revenue, not a number to plan cash runway against until it is contracted.**

| Revenue Stream | Conservative | Realistic |
|---|---|---|
| Base case total (unchanged) | $304,128 | $528,876 |
| Speculative research-residency upside | +$44,000 | +$72,000 |
| **Total, speculative-upside case (governing figures)** | **$348,128** | **$600,876** |

### Margin — 6 Units, Speculative-Upside Case (governing figures, per decision 24 Aug 2026)

- **Conservative: ($348,128 - $304,000) / $348,128 = +12.7%.**
- **Realistic: ($600,876 - $304,000) / $600,876 = +49.4%.**

**For comparison, the base case (no speculative upside, revenue unchanged at $304,128/$528,876):**
- Conservative: ($304,128 - $304,000) / $304,128 = **+0.04%, effective breakeven, not a real margin buffer.**
- Realistic: ($528,876 - $304,000) / $528,876 = **+42.5%.**

**The speculative-upside case is what governs the deck and this document going forward, per explicit user decision.** The base case is retained here specifically because it is the one that should govern actual cash-runway planning until the OKEANOS residency assumption is contracted, per `atlantis-pads-azores-container-scaling-3-6-9.md`'s own bottom-line recommendation. Revisit this figure the moment OKEANOS residency volume is actually confirmed or denied.

### Original 3-Unit Baseline (retained for audit trail, superseded 24 Aug 2026)

Startup Cost Breakdown — $973,000 total:

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Land / coastal plot (Faial or Pico, 2ha) | $148,000 | [SOURCED] context — €35-60/m² coastal rural land on Pico, 213+ active listings mid-2026, per `network-overview.md` |
| Container homes x3 (seismic + Atlantic wind rated) | $312,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| IMTA aquaculture infrastructure — lines, cages, nursery | $124,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Research vessel and ROV operational kit | $112,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Research station and OKEANOS interface fit-out | $56,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Permits, DRA (regional authority), EU regulatory filings | $28,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Working capital reserve (6 months opex) | $193,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — mechanically derived from opex total |
| **Total** | **$973,000** | Sum verified: 148+312+124+112+56+28+193 = 973 ✓ |

Annual Operating Costs — $257,410 total:

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Staff — 2 FT researchers, 1 aquaculture tech, 1 guide | $98,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Vessel operations, fuel, ROV maintenance | $52,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Aquaculture inputs — seed, nutrients, harvest logistics | $32,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Accommodation operations, utilities (island premium) | $36,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| OKEANOS partnership costs, co-publication fees | $14,000 | [SOURCED] context — OKEANOS marine research institute headquartered in Horta, works with BBC/National Geographic/NOAA, per `network-overview.md` |
| Marketing, booking, carbon credit verification | $18,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Admin, EU grant compliance, contingency | $7,410 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | **$257,410** | Sum verified: 98+52+32+36+14+18+7.41 = 257.41 ✓ |

Margin, 3-unit baseline: Conservative +15.4% (rounds to +15%), Realistic +51.3% (rounds to +51%).

Realistic figure matches the deck's on-slide display. Conservative figure does not (deck shows 20%, should be 15%). v6 script already uses the correct +15%/+51%.

### Grant Upside (not in base case)

| Grant | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| EU LIFE BESTLIFE2030 (outermost region) | 95% co-financing | [SOURCED] — confirmed EU outermost-region co-financing rate, `network-overview.md` |
| EMFAF Outermost Region Fisheries | €80K-€400K | [INTERNAL MODEL] — program exists and applies, specific amount is an estimate |
| Horizon Europe Blue Economy | €100K-€600K | [INTERNAL MODEL] — program exists, amount is an estimate; OKEANOS as co-applicant is a real, named partnership |

---

## South Africa — Full Line-Item Verification

### Startup Cost Breakdown — $888,000 total

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal land lease/purchase (~4 acres, Gansbaai–Hermanus corridor) | $120,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Company registration, MLRA Section 18 aquaculture rights application, DFFE EIA & permitting fees | $35,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Container homes x3 (temperate-climate spec, no cyclone/arctic premium) | $135,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — no weather premium per `site-profile-south-africa.md`, comparable to Okinawa's per-unit cost |
| Off-grid solar + battery power system (load-shedding resilience) | $70,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Security infrastructure (fencing, CCTV, alarm, anti-poaching coordination) | $40,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — direct response to documented organized-crime-linked abalone poaching risk in this exact region |
| Research station fit-out (wet lab, classroom space for DICT/Sea Change partnership) | $60,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Abalone/kelp aquaculture infrastructure (flow-through tanks, kelp lines, hatchery, pumps) | $200,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Dive/tour support vessel + safety and cage-diving equipment | $85,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| 6-month working capital reserve | $143,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — 0.5x annual opex, mechanically derived |
| **Total** | **$888,000** | Sum verified: 120+35+135+70+40+60+200+85+143 = 888 ✓ |

### Annual Operating Costs — $286,000 total

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Staff — manager, 2 aquaculture techs, 2 guides/crew, research coordinator, admin, 2 security | $111,000 | [SOURCED] context — role scaling calibrated to SA's documented national wage band R15,000–R31,000/month per `site-profile-south-africa.md`; total cost is an internal model |
| Vessel and equipment maintenance | $20,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Aquaculture operations (feed, hatchery consumables, water quality, stock) | $32,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Accommodation and facility (maintenance, utilities, backup diesel, catering) | $24,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Security (CCTV/alarm monitoring, anti-poaching coordination) | $16,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — same organized-crime risk driver as the startup security line |
| Insurance | $18,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Marketing and sales | $15,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Research hosting (DICT / Sea Change partnership costs) | $10,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Admin, legal, permit renewals | $14,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Contingency (10%) | $26,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | **$286,000** | Sum verified: 111+20+32+24+16+18+15+10+14+26 = 286 ✓ |

### Revenue Without Grants, Year 2-3

| Revenue Stream | Active Months | Conservative | Realistic | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abalone aquaculture sales | 12 | $45,000 | $105,000 | [SOURCED] — price $25–$35/kg within SA's documented $21.27–$45/kg export range (Jan 2025 export unit value); South Africa is a top-5 global abalone producer per `site-profile-south-africa.md`. Volume assumption is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| Kelp/seaweed ancillary sales | 12 | $15,000 | $28,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Shark cage diving tours | 10 | $64,800 | $108,000 | [SOURCED] — price ~R2,000/person (~$108) matches current Gansbaai operator pricing; Gansbaai is the established global capital of Great White shark cage diving with 8+ licensed operators. Volume assumption is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| Whale watching tours | 6 | $24,300 | $43,740 | [SOURCED] — price ~R1,500/person (~$81) matches current Hermanus operator pricing; Hermanus is a top-tier global land-based whale-watching site. Volume assumption is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| Kelp-forest freediving, scuba, underwater photography | 7-8 | $40,850 | $74,250 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — demand context sourced: Great African Seaforest kelp ecosystem, ~1,000km coastline, documented in `network-overview.md` |
| Research residencies + education programs | 9-12 | $53,100 | $99,900 | [SOURCED] context — Dyer Island Conservation Trust (resident, active white-shark/African-penguin research) and Sea Change Project (Stellenbosch University-partnered kelp research) are both real, active partnerships. Per-residency/program pricing is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| Off-grid module short-term accommodation | 12 | $10,500 | $19,600 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | | **$253,550** | **$478,490** | Sums verified: cons 45000+15000+64800+24300+40850+53100+10500=253550 ✓; real 105000+28000+108000+43740+74250+99900+19600=478490 ✓ |

### Margin — Verified

- **Conservative: ($253,550 - $286,000) / $253,550 = -12.79%, rounds to -12.8%.** Matches figure already used in deck copy and site profile.
- **Realistic: ($478,490 - $286,000) / $478,490 = +40.23%, rounds to +40.2%.** Matches figure already used in deck copy and site profile.

No discrepancy found — South Africa's figures were computed correctly in its site profile from the start. This section brings South Africa's audit trail to the same line-item depth as Okinawa/Azores rather than correcting an error.

### Grant Upside (not in base case)

| Grant | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| DFFE Aquaculture Development Fund | $10K–$150K | [SOURCED] — documented national SMME aquaculture support program; specific award sizing is [INTERNAL MODEL] estimate |
| Save Our Seas Foundation Small Grants | $5K–$50K | [SOURCED] — Cape Town-headquartered marine research funder, direct fit given Gansbaai proximity |
| WWF South Africa Environmental and Social Impact Grant | Up to $15K | [SOURCED] — WWF SA runs an active Ocean Stewardship program and was a direct advisor to Operation Phakisa |

---

## Norway — Full Line-Item Verification

### Startup Cost Breakdown — $1,336,000 total

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal farm / waterfront property (Hitra inner coast) | $380,000 | [SOURCED] context — working coastal farm/smallholding with pier/boathouse documented at NOK 3M–12M (€270K–€1.1M) per `site-profile-norway.md`; specific figure used here is [INTERNAL MODEL] within that sourced range |
| Hytte cabin fit-out x4 (cold-weather, premium standard) | $348,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Kelp aquaculture infrastructure — lines, seeding, harvest | $148,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Vessel — multi-purpose (aquaculture + whale watch + ROV) | $124,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Norwegian AS registration + aquaculture license fees | $32,000 | [SOURCED] context — AS registration ~NOK 2,000, license application fee NOK 24,000 + NOK 3,000/hectare per `site-profile-norway.md`; total line includes broader legal/setup costs beyond the base fee, which is [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| SINTEF monitoring interface, sensor network | $48,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Working capital reserve (6 months opex) | $256,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — 6x monthly opex, mechanically derived from the opex total below |
| **Total** | **$1,336,000** | Sum verified: 380+348+148+124+32+48+256 = 1336 ✓ |

### Annual Operating Costs — $415,311 total

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Staff — 2 FT aquaculture techs, 1 guide, 1 manager | $148,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Vessel operations, fuel, cold-water maintenance premium | $68,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Hytte operations, heating, utilities (subarctic premium) | $72,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Kelp inputs — seed stock, processing, carbon verification | $44,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Norwegian AS compliance, tax, legal | $28,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Marketing, booking, corporate program delivery | $36,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Insurance, contingency (weather risk premium) | $19,311 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | **$415,311** | Sum verified: 148+68+72+44+28+36+19.311 = 415.311 ✓ |

### Revenue Without Grants, Year 2-3

| Revenue Stream | Active Months | Conservative | Realistic | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelp harvest + biochar carbon credits | 12 | $73,800 | $128,400 | [SOURCED] — seaweed biochar carbon credits documented at €50–200/tonne CO2-equivalent in voluntary markets per `site-profile-norway.md`, described as the leading ocean carbon credit category globally. Volume/harvest assumption is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| Hytte accommodation + corporate intensives | 10 | $118,800 | $198,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — demand context: SINTEF/NTNU actively seek industry partners with physical site access; corporate climate-tech intensives for energy-sector cohorts (Equinor/Aker transition programs) documented as a real need in `site-profile-norway.md` |
| Orca + whale watch + northern lights tours | 6 | $44,640 | $74,400 | [SOURCED] context — winter orca/humpback whale aggregations following herring migrations, and cold-water diving with no tropical competitor, documented in `site-profile-norway.md`. Per-tour pricing is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| IMTA — salmon co-culture + mussels | 12 | $54,000 | $90,000 | [SOURCED] context — world's first fully integrated salmon+kelp IMTA farm (Cermaq, Nordfoldleira) operates 100km north in the same regulatory ecosystem; Trøndelag zone is IMTA-ready per site profile. Revenue level is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| NTNU research residencies | 10 | $24,000 | $40,000 | [SOURCED] context — NTNU, the world's top-ranked aquaculture technology university, is 100km away in Trondheim and documented as actively seeking field placements. Per-residency pricing is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| ROV + sensor network B2B leasing | 10 | $29,200 | $54,200 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | | **$344,440** | **$585,000** | Sums verified: cons 73800+118800+44640+54000+24000+29200=344440 ✓; real 128400+198000+74400+90000+40000+54200=585000 ✓ |

### Margin — Corrected

- **Conservative: ($344,440 - $415,311) / $344,440 = -20.57%, rounds to -21%.** A loss at the stress-test floor. The v5 deck HTML displayed 17% here — wrong, corrected in this pass (originally flagged Aug 17).
- **Realistic: ($585,000 - $415,311) / $585,000 = +29.01%, rounds to +29%.** Matches the deck's Slide 12 portfolio-table display; only the per-site financial-slide conservative badge was wrong.

### Grant Upside (not in base case)

| Grant | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Innovation Norway + NFR Research Grant | Up to 45% cost coverage | [SOURCED] — with SINTEF as co-applicant, per `site-profile-norway.md`; kelp biochar pilot, carbon methodology, aquaculture tech development |
| Enova Energy Grant | NOK 200K–2M | [SOURCED] — documented national renewable-energy/zero-emission-vessel grant program |
| Horizon Europe (Norway associated member) | €100K–€600K | [INTERNAL MODEL] — program exists and Norway has full EEA/Horizon Europe access per site profile, amount is an estimate |

---

## Kefalonia — Full Line-Item Verification

### Startup Cost Breakdown — $987,000 total

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Floating accommodation platform (pontoon-based) | $248,000 | [SOURCED] context — pontoon-based floating accommodation under Port Authority jurisdiction, the most permissive building pathway in Greece, per `site-profile-greece.md`; specific cost is [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Aquaculture license acquisition (existing operator) | $160,000 | [SOURCED] context — Kefalonia Fisheries already operates Europe's first Naturland-certified organic sea bass operation in these exact waters (5,000+ tonnes/yr, 200+ employees, ~€20M turnover per site profile); acquiring an existing license is documented as 2–5 years faster than a new application. Acquisition price is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| Sea bass and bream aquaculture infrastructure | $138,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Dive and research vessels (x2) | $96,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| NATURA 2000 ecological survey + Forest Registry clearance | $32,000 | [SOURCED] context — Posidonia oceanica is strictly protected under EU Habitats Directive Annex I and the Barcelona Convention per site profile, requiring acoustic seafloor mapping before any site commitment; survey cost itself is [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Port Authority permits, HCMR registration, legal | $44,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Working capital reserve (6 months opex) | $269,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — mechanically derived from opex total |
| **Total** | **$987,000** | Sum verified: 248+160+138+96+32+44+269 = 987 ✓ |

### Annual Operating Costs — $341,919 total

| Line Item | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Staff — 2 FT aquaculture, 1 guide, 1 researcher, 1 manager | $128,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Finfish inputs — sea bass seed, feed, organic certification | $62,000 | [SOURCED] context — Naturland organic certification maintenance is a real, ongoing cost category per site profile; specific figure is [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Vessel operations, fuel, Mediterranean maintenance | $44,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Floating accommodation operations, utilities | $38,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Naturland certification maintenance + EU compliance | $22,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Marketing, immersive program delivery, booking | $30,000 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Admin, Greek regulatory filings, contingency | $17,919 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | **$341,919** | Sum verified: 128+62+44+38+22+30+17.919 = 341.919 ✓ |

### Revenue Without Grants, Year 2-3

| Revenue Stream | Active Months | Conservative | Realistic | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naturland sea bass + sea bream aquaculture | 12 | $112,000 | $196,000 | [SOURCED] — farmgate pricing documented at €4–7/kg sea bass, €3–5/kg bream per `site-profile-greece.md`; Kefalonia Fisheries proves the operating model at commercial scale (5,000+ tonnes/yr) in these exact waters. Volume assumption is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| Freediving, scuba, dolphin + turtle watching | 8 | $86,400 | $158,400 | [SOURCED] context — Argostoli Gulf hosts one of the most-studied loggerhead turtle populations in the world, resident year-round; AIDA/SSI freediving course pricing documented at €200-600/person, 7-day retreats €1,500-3,000/person; existing turtle-watching boat tours already running at €25-40/person, all per site profile |
| Practitioner immersives + lifestyle programs | 7 | $64,800 | $118,800 | [INTERNAL MODEL] — demand context sourced: Greece received 40M+ tourists in 2024 generating €21.7B per `network-overview.md`, most mature coastal tourism market in the EU |
| IMTA mussels and bivalves | 12 | $38,000 | $64,000 | [SOURCED] context — Ionian water quality and temperature documented as optimal for polyculture, clean water = premium raw shellfish per site profile. Revenue level is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| Research residencies — Archipelagos / HCMR | 10 | $14,000 | $28,000 | [SOURCED] context — Wildlife Sense operates an on-island research station; Archipelagos Institute has trained 27,000+ researchers from 43 countries per site profile. Per-residency pricing is [INTERNAL MODEL]. |
| Traditional marine craft + culinary programs | 6 | $7,360 | $25,272 | [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| **Total** | | **$322,560** | **$590,472** | Sums verified: cons 112000+86400+64800+38000+14000+7360=322560 ✓; real 196000+158400+118800+64000+28000+25272=590472 ✓ |

### Margin — Corrected

- **Conservative: ($322,560 - $341,919) / $322,560 = -6.00%.** A small loss at the stress-test floor. The v5 deck HTML displayed 19% here — wrong, corrected in this pass (originally flagged Aug 17).
- **Realistic: ($590,472 - $341,919) / $590,472 = +42.11%, rounds to +42%.** Matches the deck's Slide 12 portfolio-table display; only the per-site financial-slide conservative badge was wrong.

### Grant Upside (not in base case)

| Grant | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| EMFAF Greek Allocation 2021–2027 | €519.6M pool, €80K–€600K accessible | [SOURCED] — documented Greek national EMFAF allocation, 2.5x the Azores outermost-region amount per `network-overview.md`/site profile, deepest grant stack in the network |
| LIFE MareNatura / Horizon Europe | €50K–€300K | [SOURCED] — LIFE MareNatura is a real, active €11M HCMR-led project (2023-2029) designating new MPAs across the Ionian corridor per site profile; specific award sizing to this pad is [INTERNAL MODEL] |
| Greek Development Ministry — Coastal Tourism | €30K–€150K | [INTERNAL MODEL] — program category exists, specific amount is an estimate |

---

## Summary — Cross-Site Comparison (All 5 Sites at Full Line-Item Depth)

All five active network sites (Okinawa, Azores, Norway, Kefalonia, South Africa) now carry the same audit rigor: every startup and opex line summed and verified independently, every revenue line tagged [SOURCED] or [INTERNAL MODEL], every margin recomputed from (revenue − opex) / revenue rather than trusted from a displayed badge.

| Site | Startup | Opex | Conservative Margin | Realistic Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okinawa | $876,000 | $264,843 | -28% | +25% |
| Azores | $1,514,500 (6 units, mid-case; speculative-upside revenue) | $304,000 | +12.7% | +49.4% |
| Norway | $1,336,000 | $415,311 | -21% | +29% |
| Kefalonia | $987,000 | $341,919 | -6% | +42% |
| South Africa | $888,000 | $286,000 | -12.8% | +40.2% |
| Florida Keys (removed from active network 20 Aug 2026; standalone US-anchor candidate, see `christian-us-site-plan.md`) | $1,676,000 | $352,000 | -115% | +12% |

**4 of 5 active network sites lose money at conservative/floor capacity. Florida Keys, priced separately as a US-anchor candidate, is the network's weakest financial case overall** (highest startup, highest opex, worst conservative margin, smallest realistic margin) driven partly by two revenue streams, CKC and coral-fragment supply, that have no established market price anywhere. See `atlantis-pads-florida-keys-numbers-justification.md` for full detail. This is the honest-numbers finding this audit doc exists to protect, it should not get smoothed over as the deck's Act 6/Data Appendix gets built.

---

## Methodology Note for Act 6 (Data Appendix)

When Act 6 is built, it should pull directly from this document rather than re-deriving figures. The pattern that worked here:

1. Pull the raw line-item tables from the source (deck HTML, site-profile.md, or network-overview.md)
2. Verify each subtotal sums correctly
3. Recompute margin = (revenue - opex) / revenue independently — never trust a displayed margin percentage without recomputing it
4. Tag every line as [INTERNAL MODEL] or [SOURCED], and for [SOURCED] lines, name the exact source document/citation
5. Flag any mismatch between recomputed and displayed figures explicitly — do not silently correct a live deck without confirmation